Introducing the 2013-2014 First Year Book:
The Signal and the Noise
Why so many predictions fail — but some don’t.
By Nate Silver
The Signal and the Noise asks us a very important question: why do really smart people make really bad decisions? In a world that’s increasingly data-rich, it is becoming more difficult to find useful information among the excess — the signal in the noise. Silver takes us through a diverse array of topics — from baseball, sports, and poker to weather, the stock market, and politics — in order to demonstrate that prediction is a skill we use in everyday life, a skill that can be practiced in order to discern the good information from the bad and use it to make better decisions in our daily lives, but also in the real world. He demonstrates that the same tools we use to make predictions in areas like sports and games can be used to forecast bigger issues like political elections, hurricanes, and national security.
In early 2014, we will be starting an alumni book group for The Signal and the Noise. If you are a UMD alumni and are interested in participating, please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org for more information. The book is available on Amazon here.